Improving State of the World


Indur M. Goklany

Climate Change

 Precautionary Principle


Clearing the Air

Books

The Improving State of the World: Why We're Living Longer, Healthier, More Comfortable Lives on a Cleaner Planet  (Cato Institute, Washington, DC, 2007).
 
The Precautionary Principle: A Critical Appraisal of Environmental Risk Assessment (Cato Institute, Washington, DC, 2001).

Climate Change Publications

Is Climate Change the Number One Threat to Humanity? Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change (accepted, 2012).


Global Warming Policies Might Be Bad for Your Health. Global Warming Policy Foundation, London.  ISBN: 978-0-9566875-7-9. (2012)


Misled on Climate Change: How the UN IPCC (and others) Exaggerate the Impact of Global Warming, Reason Foundation, Policy Study No. 399, December 2011.

Wealth and Safety: The Amazing Decline in Deaths from Extreme Weather in an Era of Global Warming, 1900–2010, Reason Foundation, Policy Study No. 393, September 2011.

Could Biofuel Policies Increase Death and Disease in Developing Countries? Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons 16 (1): 9–13 (2011).

Economic Development in Developing Countries: Advancing Human Well-Being and the Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change. Draft. In: Patrick J. Michaels, ed., Climate Coup: Global Warming’s Invasion of Our Government  and Our Lives (Washington, DC: Cato Institute, 2011), 157–184.

Global Warming, Global Warming Policy and Mortality Rates, Presentation at the Fourth International Conference on Climate Change, Chicago, IL, May 16-18, 2010. This is the final version of this slide show.  It corrects  the caption in slide 7, and transcription errors on slides 18 and 19, which had understated potential death and disease from biofuel production.

Trapped Between the Falling Sky and the Rising Seas: The Imagined Terrors of the Impacts of Climate Change. Prepared for University of Pennsylvania Workshop on Markets & the Environment, draft, 13 December 2009.

Deaths and Death Rates from Extreme Weather Events: 1900-2008. Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons 14 (4): 102-09 (2009).


Climate change is not the biggest health threat. Lancet  374: 973-75 (2009).

Global public health: Global warming in perspective. Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons 14 (3): 69-75 (2009).

Discounting the Future, Regulation 32: 36-40 (Spring 2009).

Is Climate Change the "Defining Challenge of Our Age"? Energy & Environment 20(3): 279-302 (2009).

What to Do about Global Warming, Policy Analysis, Number 609, Cato Institute, Washington, DC, 5 February 2008.

Managing Climate Change Risks in the Context of Other, More Urgent Risks to Humanity, prepared for the Conference on Climate Change and Development, Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, 26-27 April 2007.

“Integrated Strategies to Reduce Vulnerability and Advance Adaptation, Mitigation, and Sustainable Development,” Mitigation and Adaption Strategies for Global Change DOI 10.1007/s11027-007-9098-1 (2007).

“Is a Richer-but-warmer World Better than Poorer-but-cooler Worlds?”  Energy & Environment, vol. 18, nos. 7 and 8, pp. 1023-1048 (2007).
Here is the original version prepared for the 25th Annual North American Conference of the US Association for Energy Economics/International Association of Energy Economics, September 21-23, 2005.  Note there are differences between the two versions, none of which affect the bottom line. The revisions consist mainly of: (a) changes necessitated by the fact that two entries on Table 2 -- one for the B1 scenario and the other for the B2 scenario-- were erroneously interposed in the original, (b) extended discussion in the text of malaria, (c) an explanation as to why the IPCC SRES scenarios' assumption that the population in 2085 of richest world (A1FI) might be the same as that of the second richest world (B1) is not supported by present day empirical data, and the implications of that on the relative impacts of climate change on various aspects of human well-being, and (d) confirmation of the earlier bottom line using the Stern Review's estimates of the consequences of climate change.

Adaptive Management of Climate Change Risks, in A Breath of Fresh Air: The state of environmental policy in Canada, The Fraser Institute, Toronto, Canada, pp. 62-94 (2008).

The Stern Review: A Dual Critique, Part I: The Science (by Robert M. Carter, C. R. de Freitas, Indur M. Goklany, David Holland & Richard S. Lindzen), and Part II: Economic Aspects (by Ian Byatt, Ian Castles, Indur M. Goklany, David Henderson, Nigel Lawson, Ross McKitrick, Julian Morris, Alan Peacock, Colin Robinson & Robert Skidelsky), World Economics  7 (4): 165-232 (2006).

The Ethics of Shortchanging Present Generations, November 8, 2006, Commons Blog.

Death and Death Rates Due to Extreme Weather Events:  Global and U.S. Trends, 1900-2006, in The Civil Society Report on Climate Change, November 2007. This is an update of  Death and Death Rates Due to Extreme Weather Events:  Global and U.S. Trends, 1900-2004, prepared for the proceedings of the Climate Change & Disaster Losses Workshop, Hohenkammer, Germany, May 25–26, 2006.

Climate change. Climate science and the Stern Review, by Carter, R.M., De Freitas, C.R., Goklany, I.M., Holland, D. & Lindzen, R.S., World Economics 8, 161-182 (2007).

Climate change. Response to Simmonds and Steffen, by Holland, D., Carter, R.M., De Freitas, C.R., Goklany, I.M. & Lindzen, R.S. World Economics 8, 143-151 (2007).

2nd Round of Comments to the Stern Review, March 17, 2006.

"Evidence for the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change," December 9, 2005

“A Climate Policy for the Short and Medium Term: Stabilization or Adaptation?” Energy & Environment 16: 667-680 (2005). [Based on: "Reducing Climate-Sensitive Risks in the Medium Term: Stabilisation or Adaptation?" presented at the Symposium on Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Exeter, February 1-3, 2005.]

“Evidence to the House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs on Aspects of the Economics of Climate Change.” Energy & Environment 16: 607-620 (2005).

“Living with Global Warming.” Policy Report No. 278 (Dallas, TX, National Center for Policy Analysis, September 2005).

“Is Climate Change the 21st Century’s Most Urgent Environmental Problem?” Lindenwood University, Economic Policy Lecture 7 (St. Charles, MO, Lindenwood University, 2005). Also forthcoming in SOCIETY (Transaction : Social Science and Modern Society).

“Decline in death rates of disasters.” Letter. Financial Times. February 1, 2005 (US edition), p. 14.

Global Deaths & Death Rates Due to Extreme Weather Events, 1900-2004, Commons Blog (September 6, 2005).

Deaths, Death Rates & Property Losses due to Hurricanes Hitting the United States: Trends from 1900 to 2004, Commons Blog (August 31, 2005).

Climate change & property rights, Commons Blog (April 19, 2005).

“Climate Change and Malaria.” Letter. Science 306: 55-57 (2004). Exchange of letters with David A. King.

“Climate Surprise: Weather Related Mortality Trends Are Down.”  Rapid response. BMJ online, available at http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/cgi/eletters/328/7451/1269#61289, June 4, 2004.

“Climate Change: the 21st Century’s Most Urgent Environmental Problem or Proverbial Last Straw?” In Kendra Okonski, ed., Adapt or Die: The Science, Politics and Economics of Climate Change (London: Profile Books, 2003), pp. 56-74

“Relative Contributions of Global Warming to Various Climate Sensitive Risks, and Their Implications for Adaptation and Mitigation,” Energy & Environment 14: 797-822 (2003).

“Global Warming: From the Frying Pan into the Fire.” In R. Bate, ed., Perilous Precaution: the Folly of Disregarding Science (Cambridge, UK: European Science and Environment Forum, 2002), pp. 28-69.

“Much Ado About Warming?” Forum for Applied Research and Public Policy 16 (no. 4, 2002): 40-46.

“The Problem of the Last Straw: The Case of Global Warming.” In R. Dorf, ed., Technology, Humans, and Society: Toward a Sustainable World (San Diego, CA: Academic Press, 2001), pp. 465-474.

Applying the Precautionary Principle to Global Warming. Center for the Study of American Business, Washington University, St. Louis, Mo., USA. Policy Study 158. November 2000.

“Richer is More Resilient: Dealing With Climate Change and More Urgent Environmental Problems.” In R. Bailey, ed., Earth Report 2000, Revisiting the True State of the Planet (New York, NY: McGraw-Hill, 1999), pp. 155-187.

“Potential Consequences of Increasing Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Compared to Other Environmental Problems.” Technology 7S (2000): 189-213.

“The Future of the Industrial System.” Invited Paper. International Conference on Industrial Ecology and Sustainability, University of Technology of Troyes, Troyes, France, September 22-25, 1999. Also published in:  D. Bourg and S. Erkman, eds., Perspectives on Industrial Ecology (Sheffield, UK: Greenleaf Publishing, 2003), pp. 194-222.

“U.S. Death Rates due to Extreme Heat and Cold Ascribed to Weather, 1979-1997.” Technology 7S (2000): 165-173. (Coauthored with S.R. Straja)

“Strategies to Enhance Adaptability: Technological Change, Economic Growth and Free Trade.” Climatic Change 30 (1995): 427-449.

“Climate Change and Natural Resources: Is It Too Soon to Start Adapting?” Climate Change Newsletter 5 (December 1993): 3-6.

“Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.” Climatic Change, 28: 209-219 (1994), Special Issue on Methodologies for Assessing the Integrated Impacts of Climatic Change. (Coauthored with K. Frederick and N. J. Rosenberg)

“Facilitating Adaptation to Climate Change,” in National Action Plan for Global Climate Change, Department of State Publication No.10026, Office of Global Change, December 1992. (Coauthored with others)

“Terrestrial Ecosystems,” in National Action Plan for Global Climate Change, Department of State Publication No.10026, Office of Global Change, December 1992.(Coauthored with others)

“Adaptation and Climate Change.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Chicago, February 6-11, 1992.. [Contains Executive Summary, but no figures.]

2nd version of  “Adaptation and Climate Change.” Paper originally presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Chicago, February 6-11, 1992, with a 1997 commentary in light of  the IPCC's Second Assessment Report (issued in 1996).

“Global vs. Climate Change.” In Implications of Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Forest Management, Department of Geography Publication Series, Occasional Paper No. 15, University of Waterloo, 1992. (Coauthored with H.L. Watson and M.A. Bach)

“The Role of Adaptation in Dealing With Climate Change.” Fall Meeting, American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, December 3-7, 1990.

Unmanaged Ecosystems—Biological Diversity: Adaptive Responses to Climate Change, I.M. Goklany, Chairman, and members of the U.S. Interagency Task Force, provided to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Work Group III, Resource Use and Management Subgroup, September 13, 1989.

Land Use Management: Adaptive Responses to Climate Change, I.M. Goklany, Chairman, and members of the U.S. Interagency Task Force, provided to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Work Group III, Resource Use and Management Subgroup, September 13, 1989.

Agriculture and Forestry: Adaptive Responses to Climate Change, I.M. Goklany, Chairman, and members of the U.S. Interagency Task Force, provided to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Work Group III, Resource Use and Management Subgroup, April 7, 1989.

“Climate Change Effects on Fish, Wildlife and Other DOI Programs.” in Proceedings: Second North American Conference on Preparing for Climate Change, Climate Institute, Washington, DC, December 6-8, 1988.  This is, to the best of my knowledge, the first paper to argue that a cost-effective method of reducing pressures on ecosystems and biodiversity would be to increase the efficiency of human activities that compete with the rest of nature for land and water, i.e., produce more food per unit of land and/or water. It is also the first to note that this approach, by conserving habitat and migratory corridors, would reduce current threats to biodiversity, help natural systems better cope with climate change, and conserve carbon sinks and stocks. This theme was would be later elaborated more fully in Sustaining Development and Biodiversity: Productivity, Efficiency and Conservation (Policy Analysis No. 175, Cato Institute, Washington, DC, 1992), which was coauthored with M.W. Sprague.





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