Books
The Improving State of the World: Why We're Living
Longer, Healthier, More Comfortable Lives on a Cleaner Planet
(Cato Institute, Washington, DC, 2007).
The
Precautionary Principle: A Critical Appraisal of Environmental Risk
Assessment (Cato Institute, Washington, DC, 2001).
Climate
Change Publications
Is Climate Change the Number One Threat to Humanity? Wiley
Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change (accepted, 2012).
Global
Warming Policies Might Be Bad for Your Health. Global Warming Policy
Foundation, London. ISBN:
978-0-9566875-7-9. (2012)
Misled on Climate Change: How the UN IPCC (and others) Exaggerate the Impact of Global Warming, Reason Foundation, Policy Study No. 399, December 2011.
Wealth and Safety: The Amazing Decline in Deaths from Extreme Weather in an Era of Global Warming, 1900–2010, Reason Foundation, Policy Study No. 393, September 2011.
Could Biofuel Policies Increase Death and Disease in Developing Countries? Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons 16 (1): 9–13 (2011).
Economic Development in Developing Countries: Advancing Human Well-Being and the Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change. Draft. In: Patrick J. Michaels, ed., Climate Coup: Global Warming’s Invasion of Our Government and Our Lives (Washington, DC: Cato Institute, 2011), 157–184.
Global
Warming, Global Warming Policy and Mortality Rates,
Presentation at the Fourth International Conference on Climate Change,
Chicago, IL, May 16-18, 2010. This is the final version of this slide
show. It corrects the caption in slide 7, and transcription
errors on
slides 18 and 19, which had understated potential death and disease
from biofuel production.
Trapped
Between the Falling Sky and the Rising Seas: The Imagined Terrors of
the Impacts of Climate Change. Prepared for University of
Pennsylvania Workshop on Markets & the Environment, draft, 13
December 2009.
Deaths and Death
Rates from Extreme Weather Events:
1900-2008. Journal of American
Physicians and Surgeons
14 (4): 102-09 (2009).
Climate
change is not the biggest health threat. Lancet 374: 973-75 (2009).
Global
public health: Global warming in perspective. Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons
14 (3): 69-75 (2009).
Discounting
the Future, Regulation
32: 36-40 (Spring 2009).
Is
Climate Change the "Defining Challenge of Our Age"? Energy & Environment 20(3):
279-302 (2009).
What
to Do about
Global Warming, Policy Analysis,
Number 609, Cato Institute, Washington, DC, 5 February 2008.
Managing
Climate Change Risks in the Context of Other, More Urgent Risks to
Humanity, prepared for the Conference on Climate Change and
Development, Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, 26-27 April
2007.
“Integrated
Strategies to Reduce Vulnerability and Advance Adaptation, Mitigation,
and Sustainable Development,” Mitigation
and Adaption Strategies for
Global Change DOI 10.1007/s11027-007-9098-1 (2007).
“Is
a
Richer-but-warmer World Better than Poorer-but-cooler Worlds?” Energy
&
Environment, vol. 18, nos. 7 and 8, pp. 1023-1048 (2007).
Here is the original
version prepared for the 25th
Annual North American Conference of
the US Association for Energy Economics/International Association of
Energy Economics, September 21-23, 2005. Note there are
differences between the two
versions, none of which affect the bottom line. The revisions consist
mainly of: (a) changes necessitated by
the fact that two entries on Table 2 -- one for the B1 scenario and the
other for the B2 scenario-- were erroneously interposed in the
original, (b) extended discussion in the text of malaria, (c) an
explanation as to why the IPCC SRES scenarios' assumption that the
population in 2085 of richest
world (A1FI) might be the same as that of the second richest world
(B1) is not supported by present day empirical data, and the
implications of that on the relative impacts of climate change on
various aspects of human well-being, and (d) confirmation of the
earlier bottom line using the Stern Review's estimates of the
consequences of climate change.
Adaptive
Management of Climate Change Risks, in A
Breath of Fresh Air: The state of environmental policy in Canada, The Fraser
Institute, Toronto, Canada, pp. 62-94 (2008).
The
Stern
Review: A Dual Critique, Part I: The Science (by Robert M. Carter,
C. R. de
Freitas, Indur M. Goklany, David Holland & Richard S. Lindzen), and
Part II: Economic Aspects (by Ian Byatt, Ian Castles, Indur M. Goklany,
David Henderson, Nigel Lawson, Ross McKitrick, Julian Morris, Alan
Peacock, Colin Robinson & Robert Skidelsky), World Economics 7 (4):
165-232 (2006).
The
Ethics of
Shortchanging Present Generations, November 8, 2006, Commons Blog.
Death
and Death Rates Due to Extreme Weather Events: Global and U.S.
Trends, 1900-2006, in The Civil
Society Report on Climate Change, November 2007. This is an update
of Death
and Death Rates Due to Extreme Weather Events: Global and U.S.
Trends, 1900-2004, prepared for the proceedings of
the Climate Change & Disaster Losses Workshop, Hohenkammer,
Germany, May 25–26, 2006.
Climate
change. Climate science and the Stern Review, by Carter, R.M., De
Freitas, C.R., Goklany, I.M., Holland, D.
& Lindzen, R.S., World Economics
8, 161-182
(2007).
Climate
change. Response to Simmonds and Steffen, by Holland,
D.,
Carter, R.M., De Freitas, C.R., Goklany, I.M.
& Lindzen, R.S. World Economics
8, 143-151 (2007).
2nd
Round of
Comments to the Stern Review, March 17, 2006.
"Evidence
for the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change," December
9, 2005
“A
Climate Policy for the Short and Medium Term: Stabilization or
Adaptation?” Energy &
Environment
16: 667-680 (2005). [Based on: "Reducing
Climate-Sensitive Risks in the Medium Term: Stabilisation or
Adaptation?" presented at the Symposium on
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Exeter, February 1-3, 2005.]
“Evidence
to the House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs on Aspects
of the Economics of Climate Change.” Energy
& Environment 16: 607-620 (2005).
“Living
with Global
Warming.” Policy Report
No.
278 (Dallas, TX, National Center for Policy Analysis, September 2005).
“Is
Climate Change the 21st Century’s Most Urgent Environmental Problem?”
Lindenwood University, Economic
Policy Lecture 7 (St. Charles, MO, Lindenwood University, 2005).
Also forthcoming in SOCIETY (Transaction : Social Science and Modern
Society).
“Decline
in death rates of disasters.” Letter. Financial Times. February 1, 2005
(US edition), p. 14.
Global
Deaths
& Death Rates Due to Extreme Weather Events, 1900-2004, Commons Blog (September 6, 2005).
Deaths,
Death
Rates & Property Losses due to Hurricanes Hitting the United
States: Trends from 1900 to 2004, Commons
Blog (August 31, 2005).
Climate
change
& property rights, Commons
Blog (April 19, 2005).
“Climate
Change and Malaria.” Letter. Science
306: 55-57 (2004). Exchange of letters with David A. King.
“Climate
Surprise: Weather Related Mortality Trends Are Down.” Rapid
response. BMJ online,
available at
http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/cgi/eletters/328/7451/1269#61289, June 4,
2004.
“Climate
Change: the 21st Century’s Most Urgent Environmental Problem or
Proverbial Last Straw?” In Kendra Okonski, ed., Adapt or Die: The
Science, Politics and Economics of Climate Change (London: Profile
Books, 2003), pp. 56-74
“Relative
Contributions of Global Warming to Various Climate Sensitive Risks, and
Their Implications for Adaptation and Mitigation,” Energy &
Environment 14: 797-822 (2003).
“Global Warming: From the Frying Pan into the Fire.” In R. Bate, ed., Perilous Precaution: the Folly of
Disregarding Science (Cambridge, UK: European Science and
Environment Forum, 2002), pp. 28-69.
“Much
Ado About Warming?” Forum for
Applied Research and Public Policy 16 (no. 4, 2002): 40-46.
“The Problem of the Last Straw: The Case of Global Warming.” In R.
Dorf, ed., Technology, Humans, and
Society: Toward a Sustainable World (San Diego, CA: Academic
Press, 2001), pp. 465-474.
Applying the Precautionary Principle to
Global Warming. Center for the Study of American Business,
Washington University, St. Louis, Mo., USA. Policy Study 158. November
2000.
“Richer is More Resilient: Dealing With Climate Change and More Urgent
Environmental Problems.” In R. Bailey, ed., Earth Report 2000, Revisiting the True
State of the Planet (New York, NY: McGraw-Hill, 1999), pp.
155-187.
“Potential
Consequences of Increasing Atmospheric CO2 Concentration
Compared to Other Environmental Problems.” Technology 7S (2000):
189-213.
“The
Future of the Industrial System.” Invited Paper. International
Conference on Industrial Ecology and Sustainability, University
of
Technology of Troyes, Troyes, France, September 22-25, 1999. Also
published in: D. Bourg and S. Erkman, eds., Perspectives on Industrial Ecology
(Sheffield, UK: Greenleaf Publishing, 2003), pp. 194-222.
“U.S. Death Rates due to Extreme Heat and Cold Ascribed to Weather,
1979-1997.” Technology 7S
(2000): 165-173. (Coauthored with S.R. Straja)
“Strategies
to Enhance Adaptability: Technological Change, Economic Growth and Free
Trade.” Climatic Change
30
(1995): 427-449.
“Climate Change and
Natural Resources: Is It Too Soon to Start
Adapting?” Climate Change
Newsletter
5 (December 1993): 3-6.
“Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.” Climatic Change, 28: 209-219
(1994), Special Issue on Methodologies for Assessing the Integrated
Impacts of Climatic Change.
(Coauthored with K. Frederick and N. J. Rosenberg)
“Facilitating Adaptation to Climate Change,” in National Action Plan for Global Climate
Change, Department of State Publication No.10026, Office of
Global Change, December 1992. (Coauthored with others)
“Terrestrial Ecosystems,” in National
Action Plan for Global Climate Change, Department of State
Publication No.10026, Office of Global Change, December
1992.(Coauthored with others)
“Adaptation
and Climate Change.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Association
for the Advancement of Science, Chicago, February 6-11, 1992..
[Contains Executive Summary, but no figures.]
2nd
version of “Adaptation
and Climate Change.” Paper originally presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Association
for the Advancement of Science, Chicago, February 6-11, 1992,
with a 1997 commentary in light of the IPCC's Second Assessment
Report (issued in 1996).
“Global vs. Climate Change.” In Implications
of Climate Change for
Pacific Northwest Forest Management, Department of Geography
Publication Series, Occasional Paper No. 15, University of Waterloo,
1992. (Coauthored with H.L. Watson and M.A. Bach)
“The Role of Adaptation
in Dealing With Climate Change.” Fall
Meeting, American Geophysical Union,
San Francisco, December 3-7, 1990.
Unmanaged Ecosystems—Biological
Diversity: Adaptive Responses to Climate Change, I.M.
Goklany, Chairman, and members of the U.S.
Interagency Task Force, provided to the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, Work Group III, Resource Use and Management Subgroup,
September 13, 1989.
Land Use Management: Adaptive
Responses to Climate Change, I.M. Goklany, Chairman, and
members of the U.S. Interagency Task Force,
provided to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Work Group
III, Resource Use and Management Subgroup, September 13, 1989.
Agriculture
and Forestry: Adaptive Responses to Climate Change, I.M. Goklany,
Chairman, and members of the U.S. Interagency Task Force,
provided to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Work Group
III, Resource Use and Management Subgroup, April 7, 1989.
“Climate
Change Effects on Fish, Wildlife and Other DOI Programs.” in Proceedings: Second North American
Conference on Preparing for Climate Change, Climate Institute,
Washington, DC, December 6-8, 1988. This is, to the best of my
knowledge, the first paper to argue that a cost-effective method of
reducing pressures on ecosystems and biodiversity would be to increase
the efficiency of human activities that compete with the rest of nature
for land and water, i.e., produce more food per unit of land and/or
water. It is also the first to note that this approach, by conserving
habitat and migratory corridors, would reduce current threats to
biodiversity, help natural systems better cope with climate change, and
conserve carbon sinks and stocks. This theme was would be later
elaborated
more fully in Sustaining
Development and Biodiversity: Productivity, Efficiency and
Conservation (Policy Analysis
No. 175, Cato Institute, Washington, DC,
1992), which was coauthored with M.W. Sprague.
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